1) Belgium to provide real challenge for Wales
“Yes, we can win the Euros!” was the headline across one Belgian newspaper at the beginning of this week, showing that England do not have a monopoly on exaggerating the importance of friendlies. Mind you, Sunday’s victory over France in Paris was mighty impressive, with Belgium royally outclassing their hosts – technically, physically and even tactically – waltzing into a 4-1 lead before easing off and allowing France to hit two late goals that did not really save their honour. All of which could be seen as a little ominous for Wales. True, Marouane Fellaini, who scored twice in Paris, suffered an injury that will make him miss the match in Cardiff, but Nacer Chadli is a decent replacement even if he does not carry the same sort of menace as Fellaini. And the outstanding performance of Radja Nainggolan offered more evidence that this Belgium team could cause Wales even more problems than they did in November’s 0-0 draw in Brussels, when Chris Coleman’s side delivered a highly accomplished away performance but still needed Wayne Hennessey to produce a couple of splendid saves. James Chester was also superb in Brussels and that has been the encouraging thing about the Welsh campaign so far: their excellent first half of it has been down to much more than just Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. Wales are a proper team with real fluency, method and spirit as well as a sprinkling of rare class, so while they face a big challenge this weekend, so do Belgium, and both countries look strong bets to qualify for the finals irrespective of Friday’s result.
2) Hodgson shuffling his pack without Sterling?
Roy Hodgson warned Raheem Sterling that he will need to toughen up after the England winger was booed during the deathly 0-0 draw with the Republic of Ireland last Sunday. Sterling’s reputation has taken a few dents in the past few months after the way his relationship with Liverpool has broken down in public and with that in mind, could Hodgson decide to take him out of the firing line against Slovenia? England have replacements ready and waiting, principally Theo Walcott, who was in outstanding form for Arsenal at the end of the season. Walcott scored a hat-trick in the 4-1 win over West Bromwich Albion on 24 May and followed that up by banging in the opening goal in Arsenal’s victory over Aston Villa in the FA Cup final. However Walcott should not be used as a direct replacement for Sterling. Arsenal used him as a central striker rather than a wide forward and Hodgson would have to tweak his attack, perhaps move Wayne Rooney into a deeper role, if he turns to Walcott.
3) Trouble Dutch
The new expanded finals format has taken much of the jeopardy out of qualifying but one of the continent’s big beasts is under pressure and worth keeping an eye on. The hangover after getting within a couple of missed penalties of the World Cup final in 2014 has been a bad one – a full-on alka-seltzer-and-stay-under-the-covers morning after the night before. First came defeat against the Czech Republic, followed by a scrambling late fightback to come from behind to beat Kazakhstan in Amsterdam. A 2-0 defeat to Iceland followed and though they bounced back with a 6-0 win over Latvia, it took a 92nd-minute Klaas-Jan Huntelaar equaliser to rescue a point at home against Turkey. It has left them lagging behind the Czechs and Iceland in third place and looking nervously over their shoulders at Turkey. They should swat aside Latvia again, but the eastern Europeans have already held Turkey at home and, last time out, the Czech Republic in Prague. It could be a nervy night in Riga. Meanwhile …
4) A summit meeting in Group A
Iceland have already stunned Holland and Turkey in Reykjavik in this qualifying campaign. Are the Czech Republic next? It could happen, even though they beat Iceland 2-1 in November. Iceland’s improvement in recent years has been startling and Lars Lagerback, the experienced former Sweden coach, has coached his young team well. They have been open and attacking in possession, while making sure not to give anything away at the back. Only Belgium have a better defensive record than Iceland. Second in Group A and a point behind the Czechs, Iceland will need Gylfi Sigurdsson to continue his excellent form. The Swansea City midfielder is their top scorer with four goals in five matches.
5) O’Neill needing to find right attacking approach
It was by beating Scotland in a vital European qualifier in 1986 that Jack Charlton truly established his formula for success with the Republic of Ireland; now is the time for Martin O’Neill to do likewise. Ireland executed a flawed strategy when they were deservedly beaten by the superior Scots in November, and it will be fascinating to see how O’Neill tries to atone for that. A draw might be satisfactory for Scotland, though you feel another win is well within their grasp if they go for it, but nothing less than three points will do for Ireland so O’Neill must find the right method of attack this time. He has an array of options, none of them surefire hits. There is a strong case for starting Shane Long ahead of Robbie Keane again even though that did not work in Glasgow (Keane is obviously more clinical but Long’s finishing is not so erratic that it merits him being dropped in favour of a formerly wonderful player who no longer has the mobility to stretch solid defences), but what about the rest? Will Jonathan Walters get another go at trying to barge through the Scottish defence? Or will O’Neill deploy Daryl Murphy up front in the hope that he will profit from Robbie Brady’s usually exquisite set-pieces (which, as it turned out, were anything but exquisite in the last qualifier against Poland) or will he play Wes Hoolahan off Long (or Keane) and prioritise a more brainy approach? Brainy, that is, in the context of a game in which – irrespective of personnel and formations – guts, hearts, shoulders and maybe elbows will be essential kit inclusions.
6) A surreal evening in Split
There is talk of Antonio Conte dispensing with the 3-5-2 formation he favours and setting his side up in a 4-3-3 when Italy play Croatia in Split on Friday night. It promises to be a fascinating encounter, albeit one with a surreal backdrop – the match will be played in an empty stadium after Croatia were given a one-match stadium ban after racist chants by their fans during a 5-1 home win over Norway in March, which came on the back of incidents they caused during the 1-1 draw against Italy in Milan last November. A trip to Croatia is usually an intimidating experience but it is unlikely to be as daunting for Italy this time. Home advantage will not be as significant, yet Croatia will still be confident. They are top of Group H, after all, and Italy have injury worries, with Gigi Buffon a doubt and Marco Verratti ruled out. Another factor will be how Italy’s Juventus contingent respond after losing the Champions League final last Saturday. Will Italy be happy to take a point?
7) A propaganda coup for the Little Guy
A powerful blow could be struck for tiddlers this weekend. Every round of international fixtures is accompanied by the squeals of naysayers who insist that there are too many puny so-called nations whose existence serves only to clutter up the calendar. Such teams gain nothing from being routinely clobbered by the big boys, and the big boys do not even gain satisfaction from administering the clobbering, only relief if they manage to avoid injury against goofs whom they should never have to meet. So what a propaganda coup it would be for the Little Guy if the Faroe Islands completed a competitive double over Greece this weekend. The Faroese caused a sensation when they triumphed in Athens in November and it was no fluke, as Joel Edmundsson’s goal ensured victory went to the team that performed better on the night, a result that incited the Greek FA to sack manager Claudio Ranieri on the spot. Greece regained a smidgin of dignity in their next qualifier, drawing 0-0 in Hungary, while the Faroe Islands produced another valiant display before going down 1-0 at group leaders Romania. Since their admission into Fifa in 1988, the Faroe Islands have beaten only two countries twice in the same qualifying competition – San Marino in the qualifiers for Euro 96 and Malta in the run-up to 1998 World Cup. Doing the double over the former European champions on Saturday would be a startling demonstration of a small nation’s ability to progress. And of Greece’s decline.
8) A key night for Israel in Zenica
Although Israel were demolished by Gareth Bale in March, they remain hopeful of qualifying. They are third in Group B, two points behind Wales and Belgium, and they can put daylight between themselves and Bosnia-Herzegovina if they beat them in Zenica. Israel will fancy their chances given that they beat them 3-0 at home in November, a defeat that led to Bosnia sacking Sufat Sasic after a disappointing start. Sasic’s replacement, Mehmed Bazdarevic, picked up a win and a draw in his first two matches, but the real test begins here.
9) Slovakia’s Group C mastery continuing?
England, twinned with Slovakia. The only two countries with 100% qualifying records in Europe at the halfway stage could go a long way to securing their passage to the finals this weekend, and that would be an especially laudable achievement for Slovakia, who have made remarkable progress since Jan Kozak was appointed as manager in 2013. They are currently three points clear of Spain at the top of Group C and have already won away at third-placed Ukraine. They also won 2-0 in Macedonia, whom they host this weekend.
10) Germany taking it out on Gibraltar
The world champions against the continent’s newest minnows. Last time they met we expected a landslide but Gibraltar’s 4-0 defeat in Nuremberg in November was arguably their best result in qualifying so far. This time around, though, they face a German side smarting from a 2-1 loss against the USA – the Mannschaft’s third defeat since lifting the World Cup last year. It could get ugly.